A modelling framework for fisheries development planning

Abstract An approach to model building is described which begins with the establishment of a matrix reflecting the basic features of the fisheries sector, and then proceeds to incorporate these features into a model structure. The model includes a set of policy objectives and constraints, and is formulated as a mathematical programming problem. The modelling framework enables quantitative data on fish resources, production techniques (including aquaculture), market demand forecasts and other biological, economic and marketing parameters to be utilized in assessing the implications of various fishery policy objectives. The model not only estimates the real cost of alternative policies but also takes into account the various biological and economic constraints to production. Rapid assessment of a range of policy objectives is therefore made possible. As an example of the application of the modelling framework, the development of a fisheries sector plan for Kuwait is described. Such planning involved establishing the most appropriate way to maximize fresh fish self-sufficiency while reconciling the production from a multi-gear, multi-species capture fishery with the need to develop an aquaculture industry in the country. The modelling framework allowed the rapid identification of appropriate development policies consistent with the biological, economic and marketing constraints of the fisheries sector and also allowed an assessment of the cost of each policy objective.