The usefulness of the bayesian method for the prediction of plasma theophylline levels in asthmatic children during RTC therapy by the sustained preparation of theophylline

Pharmacokinetic prediction of plasma theophylline levels during RTC therapy by the sustained release preparation of theophylline was studied with a one compartment model in children aged 1-6 years old showing comparatively long sleeping time. Using the parameters measured from the population of 1-17 year olds, the accuracy of the prediction was studied by the Bayesian method. Absolute error (A.E.) and estimation error (E.E.) were about 2.0. The prediction values of E.E. seemed to be rather higher if the measured values of the absorption phase were used, and the values seemed to be rather lower if the values of the elimination phase were used. From these results it might be concluded that the Bayesian method seems to be useful for RTC therapy in children under 6 years old.