Population Forecasting Model Based on Monte Carlo Algorithm

The "two-child" policy has been implemented in China since 2016, and it was an important fertility policy adjustment made by the government, which would have an significant impact on the future population structure of China. This research studies the effect of the "two-child" policy on China's population size and structure by utilizing the Monte Carlo algorithm on the basis of the fertility rate, second-child fertility desire and death rate. In the experiments, a control group is set up to study the changes of population development including the population size, the aging trend and the labor supply after the implementation of the new fertility policy. The results show that the "two-child" policy can effectively delay the time of entering the population negative growth and alleviate the degree of aging and workforce reduction.