Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China

Abstract The worldwide pressure of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation calls for explosive growth in the research and development of renewable energies. At the same time, from a long-term point of view, the renewable energy sector may also be affected by climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) energy potential are evaluated based on the downscaled climate projections in China. The climate projections for the 21st century of China under two Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs) will be generated through the ERA-Interim reanalysis and three global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Then the projections of PV-power-related climate variables and PV-energy potential can be obtained for three periods, i.e., the 2030 s (2020–2039), 2050 s (2040–2069), and 2080 s (2070–2099). The results indicate that PV-energy potential is likely to have a slight decrease of up to 6% in most of the study regions under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Variations in PV-energy potential are further investigated through examining the contributions from changes in temperature, total radiation, and sunshine duration. The results indicate that the dominant contributions are from the changes in total radiation and sunshine duration.