Quantifying community responses to environmental variation from replicate time series

Time-series data for ecological communities are increasingly available from long-term studies designed to track species responses to environmental change. However, classical multivariate methods for analyzing community composition have limited applicability for time series, as they do not account for temporal autocorrelation in community-member abundances. Furthermore, traditional approaches often obscure the connections between responses at the community level and those for individual taxa, limiting their capacity to infer mechanisms of community change. We show how linear mixed models that account for group-specific temporal autocorrelation and observation error can be used to infer both taxon- and community-level responses to environmental predictors from replicated time-series data. Variation in taxon-specific responses to predictors is modeled using random effects, which can be used to characterize variation in community composition. Moreover, the degree of autocorrelation is estimated separately for each taxon, since this is likely to vary due to differences in their underlying population dynamics. We illustrate the utility of the approach by analyzing the response of a predatory arthropod community to spatiotemporal variation in allochthonous resources in a subarctic landscape. Our results show how mixed models with temporal autocorrelation provide a unified approach to characterizing taxon- and community-level responses to environmental variation through time.