A STUDY OF EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS ON TYPHOON WAVE

Taiwan is a country with a higher number of typhoon events every year, an average of almost 4 typhoons per year attacking Taiwan based on the records of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan from 1958-2012, includes the year event, duration, strength level, path, pressure, wind speed, etc. Beside data from CWB, there are numerical simulation results of events by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) of Taiwan based on their own prediction system. However there are little has known about the relevancy between the simulated typhoon data from NCDR and recorded typhoon data from CWB. Therefore, this study will focus on comparing the typhoon data from CWB and NCDR by using extreme value analysis for several determined return periods. In general, this research generates the results (wave height) by using extreme value analysis (Gumbel distribution and Weibull distribution) with the help by numerical models (Rankine-Vortex model, Wind Wave Model). After getting the results, this research uses visual analysis and independent samples t test to investigate the results. Based on results analysis, it can be concluded that the simulated typhoon data from NCDR does not represent the recorded typhoon data from CWB very well.