Fault probability prediction of transmission lines under icing disaster

According to the formation mechanism of different types of ice, including glaze, rime and mixed glaze, this paper derives the ice thickness under different weather conditions. The stress of the transmission line is calculated based on the deduction of the ice amount covered on the conductor. In addition, taking into account the aging failure factor of the circuit and the fatigue damage ratio of the failure repair, it is appropriate to use the exponential function to fit the probability of the break of the transmission line. The purpose is to provide the expected fault set by taking the icing disaster as the external disturbance of the transmission network, which is for the assessment of security and stability and early warning of the power grid.