ENHANCING SCENARIO TECHNIQUE BY TIME-VARIANT IMPACTS

Within the existing consistency-based approaches of scenario technique, time-variant impacts are not yet considered. This paper proposes an approach based on time-variant impact effect functions (IEFs) to consider time-variant impacts for the selection of the key influence factors. The IEFs are characterized by the parameters impact time and shape. IEFs can depict time-variant impacts as well as delayed impacts. By implementing the IEFs, traceability, transparency and acceptance of the resulting scenarios are improved due to a less heuristic selection of key influence factors.