Exploring the spatiotemporal changes of ecological carrying capacity for regional sustainable development based on GIS: A case study of Nanchang City

Abstract Using Nanchang City as an example, this paper first simulates the distribution of regional populations based on land use data and demographic data in 2012. Then, the ecological footprint method is used to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of Nanchang city at a city, county and grid scale, respectively. Based on the grid-scale assessment method, the ECC of Nanchang city was evaluated separately for 2000, 2005 and 2010, and the spatiotemporal changes in ECC during 2000–2012 were comprehensively analysed. The result shows that the difference of ECC is 0.835, indicating an ecological deficit (ED) at the city scale in 2012. When evaluated at the county level, urban districts are characterized by EDs, while all counties evaluated are characterized by ecologically sensitive (Es). At the grid-scale, the ED zone, ecological surplus (ES) zone, ecologically balance (EB)zone and Es zone can all be seen on the map. From 2000 to 2012, the most obvious change in ECC was in the range of the ED zone, which expanded gradually from the city centre in 2000 to a wider range in 2012. Finally, policy suggestions are proposed, including improving urban land use efficiency, implementing scientific planning landscape patterns and improving the ecological responsibility of stakeholders.