Dealing with “Baggage” in Riparian Relationship on Water Allocation: A Longitudinal Comparative Study from the Ferghana Valley

The purpose of this article is to analyze how path dependency combined with socio-economic and techno-ecological characteristics can lead to varying degrees of change in riparian water allocation. A longitudinal comparative study of three cases from the Ferghana Valley, each with a distinct degree of path dependency, is presented to understand how riparian parties responded when they faced pressure to reallocate. Therewith we distinguish (a) drivers of pressure pushing toward a change from (b) sources of path dependency resisting a change. Establishing similarity in drivers of pressure across all three cases, we systematically study the varying impact of established institutional arrangements leading to strong, moderate, and weak resistance to a change. The analysis reveals three key sources of path dependency explaining the strength of resistance: (i) vested interests, (ii) infrastructure control, and (iii) network effects that form the so-called “baggage” in riparian relationships. We discuss the interplay among these sources and their corresponding impact on the short- and long-term outcomes. Overall, the study brings forward the importance of dealing with “baggage” in riparian relationships to be able to effectively respond to new challenges and implement reforms in a sustainable way.