Risk Assessment Sensitivity Study for Lunar Surface Systems

The goal of this study is to prioritize lunar su rface systems' risk analysis activities for the NASA Constellation Program by first identifying the major risk drivers for transportation and lunar surface elements and then quantifying the sensitivity of the surface systems' performance to various risk parameters. A dynamic Monte Carlo risk simulation model consisting of transportation and lunar surface elements was developed for this study. In this paper, the risk analysis approach and the st ructure of the simulation model is briefly described and the sensitivity studies performed along with their outcomes are presented.