Modelling incremental benefits on complications rates when targeting lower HbA1c levels in people with Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

Aim Glucose-lowering interventions in Type 2 diabetes mellitus have demonstrated reductions in microvascular complications and modest reductions in macrovascular complications. However, the degree to which targeting different HbA1c reductions might reduce risk is unclear. Methods Participant-level data for Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) participants with established cardiovascular disease were used in a Type 2 diabetes-specific simulation model to quantify the likely impact of different HbA1c decrements on complication rates. Ten-year micro- and macrovascular rates were estimated with HbA1c levels fixed at 86, 75, 64, 53 and 42 mmol/mol (10%, 9%, 8%, 7% and 6%) while holding other risk factors constant at their baseline levels. Cumulative relative risk reductions for each outcome were derived for each HbA1c decrement. Results Of 5717 participants studied, 72.0% were men and 74.2% White European, with a mean (sd) age of 66.2 (7.9) years, systolic blood pressure 134 (16.9) mmHg, LDL-cholesterol 2.3 (0.9) mmol/l, HDL-cholesterol 1.13 (0.3) mmol/l and median Type 2 diabetes duration 9.6 (5.1–15.6) years. Ten-year cumulative relative risk reductions for modelled HbA1c values of 75, 64, 53 and 42 mmol/mol, relative to 86 mmol/mol, were 4.6%, 9.3%, 15.1% and 20.2% for myocardial infarction; 6.0%, 12.8%, 19.6% and 25.8% for stroke; 14.4%, 26.6%, 37.1% and 46.4% for diabetes-related ulcer; 21.5%, 39.0%, 52.3% and 63.1% for amputation; and 13.6%, 25.4%, 36.0% and 44.7 for single-eye blindness. Conclusions These simulated complication rates might help inform the degree to which complications might be reduced by targeting particular HbA1c reductions in Type 2 diabetes.