Lessons from the MENA region: A configurational explanation of the (in)effectiveness of UN Security Council sanctions between 1991 and 2014

AbstractThis article advances knowledge on the old but still relevant question of what explains the effectiveness of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council. Building on the Targeted Sanctions Consortium data-set, it uses a Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse why these sanctions are (not) effective in coercing, constraining, and signalling targets in the Middle East and North Africa between 1991 and 2014. Confirming that sanctions’ effectiveness is causally complex, this article has three main findings. First, trade diversion and EU sanctions play a crucial role in explaining (in)effective coercion. Second, while the combination of aviation sanctions and EU sanctions results in effective constraining, the UN Security Council seems to struggle with constraining non-governmental actors. Third, there are multiple routes to (in)effective signalling yet targeting key supporters and avoiding abstentions at the UN Security Council seem key to success.