AN EVALUATION OF MODELED PLUME RISE WITH SATELLITE DATA

During the past decade, both the number and the intensity of wildfires in the western United States have increased (Westerling et al., 2006). As a result, attention has been focused on modeling and forecasting smoke impacts from wildfires, and efforts are being made to improve existing smoke modeling and forecasting systems. Smoke modeling systems generate predictions of surface concentrations of aerosol particles and gases and are often used to estimate smoke impacts on human health. Plume rise, the elevation attained by a rising smoke plume, is an important parameter that affects the dispersion of smoke and ground-level air pollutant concentrations. Plume rise is currently a large source of uncertainty in air quality models that predict smoke impacts from wild fires. The miscalculation of plume rise from large fires can result in downwind air pollutant concentration predictions that can be incorrect by an order of magnitude (Larkin et al., 2009). The objective of this work was to use satellite observations of smoke plume heights from wildfires to better understand real-world smoke plume characteristics and the source(s) of uncertainties associated with plume height algorithms commonly used in existing air quality models.