Do more Vibrant Rural Areas have Lower Rates of Youth Out-Migration? Evidence from Zambia

We use nationally representative survey data from Zambia to evaluate whether rural youth out-migration is associated with a lack of rural economic vibrancy, as often asserted in policy discussion. After controlling for distance from markets, we do find some evidence that areas with more productive and market-oriented agriculture are associated with lower rates of out-migration, particularly for those who leave explicitly to find work. However, measures of non-farm orientation of the local economy are positively associated with out-migration, indicating that the sectoral composition of the local economy has some bearing on the relationship between vibrancy and migration. When we examine more disaggregated patterns, we find that the out-migration decisions of young males are particularly responsive to rural vibrancy conditions. However, we find that the migration decisions of those who have completed secondary school are influenced less by vibrancy measures than the decisions of less educated individuals, possibly indicating that individuals who aspire to leave rural areas, and who invest in educational attainment to achieve such aspirations, may be less susceptible to influence by rural productivity changes. Our results suggest that the narrative of a stagnation-driven exodus of educated rural youth is oversimplified and, as such, is of limited policy relevance.