MODELING OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR FOR MARINE SAFETY INVESTIGATIONS

This report describes the requirements that must be met by a model of human behavior in order for that model to be of utility in investigating marine safety problems in confined waters. It then proceeds to describe various human behavior modeling procedures that have been used with more or less success in the space and aircraft arenas and describes the advantages and disadvantages of each. Of these, the Optimal Control Model of human behavior is distinctly superior for application to the navigation problem. The Optimal Control Model theory assumes that the human will perform as would a theoretical optimal controller subject to his inherent limitations and his understanding of the control task. A Functionally Structured Model for the pilot and helmsman in the navigation task is presented in conceptual form with considerable detail in the discussion. The manner in which on-going research being conducted for the US Coast Guard can be included in the FSM framework is discussed. The body of the report concludes with recommendations and a plan for further effort. The single appendix contains the mathematical basis for the Optimal Control Model. An extensive reference list concludes the report.