Utilização do método monte carlo para avaliação econômica de policultivos de jundiás, carpas e tilápias-do-nilo como uma alternativa de modelo de cultivo de peixes para pequenas propriedades

With a growing world population and increasing demand for quality food in sufficient quantities, the aquaculture fits in this context as a producer of high quality animal protein with high productivity. The fish production in ponds has practiced for over five decades in Rio Grande do Sul state. The fish culture system commonly used is the carp only polyculture, which consists in culturing different carp species aiming to improve the performance of each one and, therefore, achieve high productivity. The carp polyculture has a low technological level and the production obtained is considered small moreover, the release of effluents in natural water bodies may cause an imbalance in the natural aquatic environment. Some studies have been performed adding the silver catfish to the traditional polyculture. Also, several studies were performed about economic viability, but with a single species, or consortium, as is the case of polyculture of shrimp and Nile tilapia. We tested the polyculture with partial substitution of 25, 50 and 75% of carps by silver catfish and Nile tilapia. We analyzed the economic viability of all substitution rates by obtaining the Net Present Value (NPV), Annual Value (AV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Pay Back period. In conditions of uncertainty, we held on sensitivity analysis and evaluation through the Monte Carlo method. We concluded that substitution rate of 25% of carps by silver catfish and Nile tilapia has higher biomass production and better effluent quality. Regarding economic analysis, an investment in polyculture with vita useful 25 years is economically feasible for a fee Minimum Attractiveness (TMA) of 6.17%.