Initial Estimates On Shipping’s Cost Impacts and Emissions for a Range of Policy Options - A Prototype Model

Shipping was estimated, in 2007, to be responsible for 3.3% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Scenarios for future growth in transport demand suggest that this share could substantially increase in the next 40 years, and without regulation the growth in emissions associated with that demand growth would be uncontrolled. Modelling can be used to understand the potential trajectories of emissions from the shipping industry and its potential development and impacts under foreseeable economic scenarios. Modelling can also be used to estimate the response (in terms of changes to those emissions trajectories and impacts on the industry) due to hypothetical regulation and policies. This paper proposes methods for conceptualizing the different components of the shipping industry for these purposes.