Methods for spatial analysis of city structure distribution to estimate city agglomeration boundaries

Abstract The paper outlines the development of city structure spatial analysis methods to address a series of applied issues in developing the efficient transportation systems for city agglomerations. The interest of a wide community of researchers is focused on the acquisition of initial data to generate a model of transportation demand in city agglomerations based on an analysis of land-use and territory building-up, mainly within the city agglomeration center — urban district area. The paper covers the potential of applying methods for a spatial analysis of city structure distribution to obtain basic parameters of population mobility such as the probability of transportation. In particular, an algorithm of developing Box-Cox-type function is given. The function describes transport preferences of city agglomeration residents, the probability of trips for various purposes depending on total time and financial expenditures. The equations obtained are used to develop a transportation demand model based on the distribution density of city structure elements. A formalized definition of the city agglomeration concept is given. It is proposed to establish city agglomeration boundaries based on an analysis of the distribution density of city property and on an analysis of uneven loading of the main transport links outside the city agglomeration center. A procedure of establishing the boundaries for a typical uni-centric city agglomeration is described using the Perm city agglomeration. The approach proposed can be applied both in combination with generating optimization and forecast transport models of cities and city agglomerations and independently, at the first stage of collecting initial data on the intensity of transport and passenger flows in the area affected by the city agglomeration.