Framing individual choice behaviour in uncertain environmental settings: An analysis of tourist preferences in the face of global warming

Unlike current stated preference studies, this paper examines the existence of framing effects from varying information about the environmental features characterizing the decision-making context where respondents are asked to state their preferences. Thus, it adds to the existing literature on framing effects which has usually been focused on analysing the welfare impacts derived from changing information relating to substitute goods and individuals’ budget constraint, the attributes defining the good to be valued and the complexity of the choice task. In particular, and through a novel choice experiment design, the paper investigates the impacts on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) from varying information about the degree of uncertainty over an expected global warming-derived increase in the temperature of a traditional summer holiday destination. Results show that the WTP increases with the magnitude of the expected temperature change and its associated probability of occurrence. Thus, they evidence that the degree of uncertainty over an expected environmental phenomenon can affect preferences for policies aimed at adapting to the environmental conditions resulting from such phenomenon. The implications of the results for decision-making in traditional sun and beach tourism destinations are also discussed.