Risk Factors for Fractures Identified in the Algorithm Developed in 5-Year Follow-Up of Postmenopausal Women From RAC-OST-POL Study

Abstract The aim of the study was to establish factors with an impact on fracture risk and to develop an algorithm to predict osteoporotic fracture. A total of 978 postmenopausal women from the epidemiological, population-based RAC-OST-POL study with a mean age of 65.7 ± 7.3 years were enrolled. At baseline, bone mineral density at hip and clinical risk factors for fracture were collected. Afterward, each person was asked annually on fracture incidence in the 5-year follow-up. Finally, data for complete 5-year observation were gathered for the group of 802 patients. During the follow-up, 92 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 78 women. The most common fracture site was the forearm (n = 45). The following baseline factors were found as significant for fracture incidence: femoral neck bone mineral density, prior fractures, steroid use, falls within previous 12 months, and height. Fracture risk was predicted by the following formula: Risk o f fracture incidence = 1 1 + e − ( − 9.899 + 1.077 ∗ STEROIDS + 0.681 ∗ PRIORFALLS + 0.611 ∗ PRIORFRACTURES − 0.483 ∗ F N Tscore + 0.042 ∗ HEIGHT ) . In our current longitudinal study, an algorithm predicting fracture occurrence over a period of 5 years was developed. It may find application in daily medical practice.