Measuring the burden of interval cancers in long-standing screening mammography programmes.

ObjectivesMammography screening programme sensitivity is evaluated by comparing the interval cancer rate (ICR) with the expected breast cancer incidence without screening, ie. the proportional interval cancer rate (PICR). The PICR is usually found by extrapolating pre-screening incidence rates, whereas ICR is calculated from data available in the screening programmes. As there is no consensus regarding estimation of background incidence, we seek to validate the ICR measure against the PICR.MethodsScreening data from the three mammography screening programmes of Stockholm, Copenhagen, and Funen in the period 1989-2011 provided data to calculate the ICR. The most commonly described methods of extrapolating pre-screening incidence rates to calculate the PICR were illustrated and PICRs were calculated by year and programme using these different methods and compared with the ICRs.ResultsPICRs varied greatly, reaching a difference of 32–34% in Stockholm, 79% in Copenhagen, and 100–106% in Funen between the high...