Application of a New Downscaling Model to Winter Temperature and Rainfall Prediction over Guizhou

Based on 500 hPa geo-potential height field from CGCM model output,the observed precipitation data of Guizhou in winter,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data(500 hPa),the prediction skills and effects of winter precipitation and temperature were studied by using the downscaling method.The results show that: The first,from the point of statistical-dynamical downscaling,the relationship between season-scale general circulation and regional rainfall or temperature was obtained,which has obvious dynamical background and weather signification.The second,20-year and 2-year reforecastes show that the relationship is reasonable.The third,to the prediction rate of precipitation of Guizhou in winter is about 70 percents,and the temperature is about 65 percent.Moreover,through after temperature inversion equation revising,its forecast rate reaches about 67%.In extremely unusual year,the prediction rate of precipitation waves small,but the temperature is great.According to this method,the precipitation and temperature trends in winter of Guizhou in 2005 was prospected finally.