Machine Learning Accelerates the Discovery of DesignRules and Exceptions in Stable Metal–Oxo Intermediate Formation

Metal–oxo moieties are important catalytic intermediates in the selective partial oxidation of hydrocarbons and in water splitting. Stable metal–oxo species have reactive properties that vary depending on the spin state of the metal, complicating the development of structure–property relationships. To overcome these challenges, we train machine-learning (ML) models capable of predicting metal–oxo formation energies across a range of first-row metals, oxidation states, and spin states. Using connectivity-only features tailored for inorganic chemistry as inputs to kernel ridge regression or artificial neural network (ANN) ML models, we achieve good mean absolute errors (4–5 kcal/mol) on set-aside test data across a range of ligand orientations. Analysis of feature importance for oxo formation energy prediction reveals the dominance of nonlocal, electronic ligand properties in contrast to other transition metal complex properties (e.g., spin-state or ionization potential). We enumerate the theoretical cataly...