An application of a Markov-chain model of shore erosion for describing the dynamics of sediment flux

Acquisition of coastline retreat rate time sequences (RRTS) is an important component of Arctic coastal monitoring. These data can be used not only to estimate sediment input into the sea during a fixed time period, but also to dynamically simulate sediment flux intensity. The RRTS were investigated at the Marre-Sale (Kara Sea) and Malii Chukochii Cape (East Siberian Sea) key sites. Statistical analysis demonstrated that the RRTS possess Markov characteristic. This allowed coastline dynamics to be described using a Markov-chain model. A model is discussed that combines Markov characteristic and information about the composition and structure of the permafrost sediments to describe sediment flux dynamics.