An energy-driven macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820

Global historical series spanning the last two centuries became recently available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Here through a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power fuels economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, originally, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts food energy. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and store energy. In the following century, 1920-2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC, displaying periods of linearity of the two variables, separated by distinct jumps interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modelling and political management of the climate crisis and energy transition.