Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the United States transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050. This goal was for analytic purposes only. These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion. Initial evaluations of these four criteria enable consideration of screening-level questions about fuel infrastructure in the low-petroleum, low-carbon scenarios: 1. How do alternative fuel costs compare to conventional fuel costs? 2. Are low-carbon resources sufficient? 3. How does expansion of alternative fuel production capacity compare to conventional production capacity replacements, upgrades, and expansion? 4. How do costs of providing alternative fuel retail infrastructure compare to conventional retail infrastructure?