Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields: Non-Parametric Evidence from the G5

This paper extends US evidence on the ability of current dividend yields to predict future equity returns in the G5 countries. By using non-parametric methods, evidence of a similar non- linear structure is found in all the countries analysed. This casts doubt on the linear framework adopted in earlier studies. The paper also finds that there is a strong relationship between extremes of dividends and future returns (in that very low/high dividends do predict low/high returns whilst intermediate levels of dividends do not). This non-linear structure strengthens the statistical evidence of a relationship between dividend yields and future returns and may help explain why previous studies have found mixed evidence.