Evaluating Policy Design Choices for the Margin Protection Program for Dairy Producers: An Expected Indemnity Approach

The Agricultural Act of 2014 replaced dairy product price supports and countercyclical income support payments with the Margin Protection Program for Dairy Producers. Using farm-level data, producer decisions and aggregate policy costs under a variety of risk environments and policy design alternatives are simulated. Fixed premium rates may result in budget outlays that are substantially higher than for equivalent variable-rate insurance subsidized at levels observed in revenue-based crop insurance policies. Due to the absence of adjusted gross income or production eligibility constraints, a significant portion of benefits may accrue to a small share of large dairy farms.