Fundamentals of technology diffusion and mobile phone case study

The fundamentals of technology diffusion are introduced in this paper. Mathematical and heuristic (loose) modeling are defined and illustrated with real data. Starting with the embryonic phase, diffusion undergoes growing and mature phases and ends in the aging phase. The cumulative adoption function (of time) denoting the total number of users of a certain product is the output of the diffusion model used to either predict future trends (e.g. sales) or estimate certain model parameters. Problems often encountered in mathematical modeling and analysis are presented. Some of these shortcomings can be alleviated through loose modeling. A case study of mobile telephone diffusion in Finland is presented to illustrate some of the modeling principles and analysis.