Controlling for off-target genetic effects using polygenic scores improves the power of genome-wide association studies

Ongoing increases in the size of human genotype and phenotype collections offer the promise of improved understanding of the genetics of complex diseases. In addition to the biological insights that can be gained from the nature of variants that contribute to the genetic component of complex trait variability, these data have brought forward the prospect of predicting complex traits and the risk of complex genetic diseases from genotype data. Optimal realization of these objectives requires ongoing methodological developments, designed to identify true trait-associated variants and accurately predict phenotype from genotype. In addition to optimal accuracy, these methods must also be computationally efficient, in order to remain tractable in the context of high variant densities and very large sample sizes. Here we show that the power of linear mixed models that are in widespread use for GWAS can be increased significantly by modeling off target genetic effects using polygenic scores derived from SNPs that are not on the same chromosome as the target SNP. Applying this method to simulated and real data we found that it can result in a substantial increase in the number of variants passing genome-wide significance thresholds. This increase in power to detect trait-associated variants also translates into an increase in the accuracy with which the resulting polygenic score predicts the phenotype from genotype data.