Population projection as prediction simulation and prospective analysis.

This paper attempts to use projections as a means of creating rather than discovering the future. The concept of predictability in projections is discussed as is the practical importance of the procedures of projections. Consideration is made for logistic growth demographic transition and probabilistic conceptualization of demographic events in the context of their relevance to population forecasting. The challenging question of how to enhance the analytical capability so as to enable formulation of plausible assumptions about the future in the context of the program manager is examined. This is also done with an eye on increasing operational efficiency of the model in order to minimize costs. The issues of the time horizon the frequency and advisability of single and multiple projection scenarios are also discussed. Predictability is less stressed in favor of analytic credibility. While the author clearly recognizes the uncertainty inherent in the future the significance of a credible analysis as a criterion for acceptance of the projection is stressed. The usefulness of a projection in contributing to decisions that shape the future is a reasonable question to ask.