Modelling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

In this paper we model and predict the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from official data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behaviour of the epidemics, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.