The best-laid plans: Climate change and food security

The importance of climate-resilient food systemscannot be overstated – many of the countrieswith the greatest number of poor and hungrypeople are also those most vulnerable to climatechange and variability (Ahmed et al., 2009). Yetthe best-laid plans can go awry. Initiatives caninadvertently increase rather than decrease thevulnerability of poor people to climate changeand variability (Scheraga and Grambsch, 1998;Adger et al., 2005; Barnett and O’Neill, 2010).Through this lens, we look at troubling aspectsof some current African food security initiatives.1. Reason to actAfrica has historically been subject to high airtemperatures, droughts, floods and environ-mental degradation (Washington et al., 2006).Theserealitieshavefuelledcivilunrestandpoliti-cal conflict over natural resources, further under-mining nutritional well-being and food security.Against this already precarious situation, anthro-pogenic climate change threatens the lives andlivelihoods of millions, if not billions, of peoplethroughout the world (Stern, 2010) and makesthe challenge of food security in Africa more dif-ficult and urgent.In cropping areas critical to national andregional food security where farmers are alreadystruggling under current climate change andvariability, future hydrological conditions arelikely to be more extreme than those in thepast, and mean temperatures are projected toexceed historical observations in the next 10–15years (Battisti and Naylor, 2009). A recent reportby the Consultative Group on International Agri-cultural Research’s research programme onClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security(CCAFS) projects that, by 2050, air temperaturesabove 308Cwill becommoninEast andSouthernAfrica and that shorter growing seasons in Eastand West Africa may make cropping an evenmore risky enterprise (Ericksen et al., 2011).Burke et al. (2009) suggest that by 2025 – 14years’ time – in 4 years out of 10, the meangrowing season temperature will be warmerthan any experienced in the past for most areasplanted to maize in Africa. Hence, rural liveli-hoods strategies may have to shift to increaseddependence on livestock, or to increasedoff-farm income, or to leaving agriculturealtogether (Jones and Thornton, 2009; Thorntonetal.,2009).Theseimpactsofclimatechangeandvariability will take a visible toll on the most vul-nerable; by 2050, as calorie availability declines,child malnutrition is projected to increase by 20per cent over a no-climate-change world(Nelson et al., 2009).2. Existing food security initiativesAlmost 2 years after nations signed the L’AquilaStatement committing funds to reduce hungerand pledging to couple food security actions