Changes in epidemiological features of vaccine preventable infectious diseases among three eras of national vaccination strategies from 1953 to 2018 in Shanghai, China

Abstract Background Recurring outbreaks of infectious diseases highlight the importance of population vaccination strategies. We aimed to assess the impact of national vaccination strategies on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPDs) in Shanghai, China and to identify vulnerable groups that may benefit from future vaccination policies. Methods Infectious disease data from 1953 to 2018 was obtained from Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai China. We used joinpoint regression to show incidence, mortality and fatality trends and to determine annual percent change in incidence of 12 VPDs among three eras of national immunization strategies: (1)1953–1977, (2)1978–2007, and(3)2008–2018. Findings Incidence, mortality, and fatality from VPDs have decreased drastically over the three eras, despite the inclusion of more diseases over time. Strikingly, the overall yearly incidence of VPDs shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 in Shanghai (annual percentage changes, APC:7.7, p = 0.025). In the third era (2008–2018), the three VPDs with the highest incidence were varicella (80.2 cases/100,000), hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (73.6 cases/100,000), and hepatitis (43.5 cases/100,000). A significant upward trend was also observed in hepatitis (APC:24.9, p Interpretation Focus is needed in controlling adult hepatitis and tuberculosis, either by introducing adult booster vaccines or by research into more effective vaccines. Varicella and HFMD are on the rise, but vaccines for these are not included in national programs. Strategies funded by government agencies or encouraged by research incentives are needed for varicella and HFMD, such as two-dose and novel multi-valent vaccines, respectively. Funding Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai Municipal Government.