Development and validation of a nomogram with an autophagy-related gene signature for predicting survival in patients with glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common brain tumor with significant morbidity and mortality. Autophagy plays a vital role in GBM development and progression. We aimed to establish an autophagy-related multigene expression signature for individualized prognosis prediction in patients with GBM. Differentially expressed autophagy-related genes (DE-ATGs) in GBM and normal samples were screened using TCGA. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed on DE-ATGs to identify the optimal prognosis-related genes. Consequently, NRG1 (HR=1.142, P=0.008), ITGA3 (HR=1.149, P=0.043), and MAP1LC3A (HR=1.308, P=0.014) were selected to establish the prognostic risk score model and validated in the CGGA validation cohort. GSEA revealed that these genes were mainly enriched in cancer- and autophagy-related KEGG pathways. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with high risk scores had significantly poorer overall survival (OS, log-rank P= 6.955×10-5). The autophagy signature was identified as an independent prognostic factor. Finally, a prognostic nomogram including the autophagy signature, age, pharmacotherapy, radiotherapy, and IDH mutation status was constructed, and TCGA/CGGA-based calibration plots indicated its excellent predictive performance. The autophagy-related three-gene risk score model could be a prognostic biomarker and suggest therapeutic targets for GBM. The prognostic nomogram could assist individualized survival prediction and improve treatment strategies.