HISTORIC TRENDS AND FUTURE CONSEQUENCES OF PROJECTED TRAFFIC ALONG RURAL INTERSTATE 35

Vehicular traffic moving through rural sections of Interstate 35 in Texas is growing at a dramatic rate. For example, in the rural areas between San Antonio and Dallas, traffic grew between 4 and 8% annually between 1983 and 1992. Some rural sections exhibited traffic growth rates as high as 10% between 1970 and 1993. And as traffic grows, so does travel time--an inevitable consequence of congestion. Thus, a trip from San Antonio to Dallas, which took approximately 4.5 hours in 1972, will require 8 hours by the year 2006, given a modest 4% traffic growth annually. Other disturbing, congestion-related consequences include rising pollution levels and greater operating costs for passenger cars and trucks, not to mention more accidents. If the problems associated with increasing traffic demand in the state are not resolved, Texans can expect higher costs of living and greater losses in productivity. The primary objective of this report is to demonstrate the future loss of personal mobility by the highway user on rural sections of the Interstate. A second primary objective is to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive economic analysis of the problems associated with large traffic flows by using rural IH-35 as an example of a high-traffic corridor. Additionally, this report will provide a foundation for suggesting alternative solutions to the problem of traffic congestion on high-traffic corridors. By demonstrating the problems of growing traffic demand on rural high-traffic corridors in Texas, and by building on the findings of an earlier study, we suggest that a supercorridor--also known as a managed transportation system (MTS)--continues to be a feasible option for mitigating the growing traffic congestion problems on rural corridors.