Prospective validation of the Urgent Surgery Elderly Mortality risk score (USEM)

Abstract Introduction We aimed to test the predictive ability and to compare the predictive ability of the USEM to SRS, SORT and ASA in a prospective sample. Patients and methods A Prospective cohort of >65-year-old patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery in a Hospital. Models calibration and discrimination were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results A total of 500 patients with a median age of 78 years were included. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.824. The USEM overestimated mortality (Test Hosmer-Lemeshow p  Conclusions After the recalibration, the USEM had good discriminant power to estimate the risk of mortality in elderly patients after urgent abdominal surgery.