Estimation of Spatially Correlated Ocean Currents from Ensemble Forecasts and Online Measurements

We present a method to estimate two-dimensional, time-invariant oceanic flow fields based on data from both ensemble forecasts and online measurements. Our method produces a spatially coherent estimate in a computationally efficient manner suitable for use in marine robotics for path planning and related applications. We use kernel methods and singular value decomposition to find a compact model of the ensemble data that is represented as a linear combination of basis flow fields and that preserves the spatial correlations present in the data. Online measurements of ocean current, taken for example by marine robots, can then be incorporated using recursive Bayesian estimation. We provide computational analysis, performance comparisons with related methods, and demonstration with real-world ensemble data to show the computational efficiency and validity of our method. Possible applications in addition to path planning include active perception methods for model improvement through intentional choice of measurement locations.