Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Aircraft Recoverable Spare Parts

Abstract : This report addresses the problem of estimating Air Force needs for aircraft recoverable spare parts and their depot-level repair. Since the forecasting techniques imbedded in the Air Force Materiel Command's current requirements estimation process were implemented, a great deal has been learned about modeling parts demand processes more effectively. The report explores several issues involved in modeling and forecasting demands for aircraft spare parts along with alternative forecasting methods that can substantially reduce expected predictive error. The research described here is part of a larger body of work intended to help us understand better the effects of uncertainty and management adaptations in shaping the performance of the logistics system in a variety of peacetime and wartime scenarios, and to account explicitly for those effects in spares and repair requirements estimation.