How many giraffes are there? A comparison of abundance estimators at Ongava Game Reserve, Namibia

Camera-traps are a versatile and widely adopted tool to collect biological data in wildlife conservation and management. If estimating population abundance from camera-trap data is the primarily goal of many projects, what population estimator is suitable for such data needs to be investigated. We took advantage of a 21 days camera-trap monitoring on giraffes at Onvaga Game Reserve, Namibia to compare capture-recapture (CR), saturation curves and N-mixture estimators of population abundance. A marked variation in detection probability of giraffes was observed in time and between individuals. Giraffes were also less likely to be detected after they were seen at a waterhole with cameras (visit frequency of f = 0.25). We estimated population size to 119 giraffes with a Cv = 0.10 with the best CR estimator. All other estimators we a applied over-estimated population size by ca. -20 to >+80%, because they did not account for the main sources of heterogeneity in detection probability. We found that modelling choices was much less forgiving for N-mixture than CR estimators. Double counts were problematic for N-mixture models, challenging the use of raw counts at waterholes to monitor giraffes abundance.