Forest Fire Spread as a Probabilistic Modelling Problem

Furyaev and Kurbatsky (1972) introduced the concept of probability of forest fires spreading across fire prevention strips. The present paper explores more general new mathematical theories on the process of geometrical forest fire spread, including a summation of a finite set of functions (Vorob’ev 1991a, b, 1992, 1993), a theory of mean sets (Vorob’ev 1975, 1984), and a theory of random spread (Bazhenov and Vorob’ev 1976, 1978; Vorob’ev 1973, 1975, 1976a, b, 1984; Vorob’ev and Valendik 1978. Vorob’ev and Dorrer 1974). These theories were intended to solve applied problems of probabilistic modelling of the geometrical shape of forest fires (Valendik et al. 1977; Vorob’ev and Valendik 1978; Konev et al. 1974; Kurbatsky and Telitzyn 1976; Sofronov and Volokitina 1983). Statistical models of fire characteristics were considered by Gorovaya and Korovin (1980); Dorrer (1978, 1986); Korovin (1984); and Furyaev and Baranov (1971).