Empirical analysis of the risk of social exclusion of long-term unemployed young people in Belgium

Belgium has faced increasing rates of unemployment since the first oil crisis in 1973. Between 1973 and 1985, the number of unemployed persons gradually increased, reaching peak values in the beginning of the 80s (1983 and 1984). Since the mid-80s, the unemployment figures, although decreasing, have remained at a high level. The 90s can be characterised as a new period of high unemployment rates with a new peak in 1994. From the second half of 1997 on, unemployment figures appeared to decrease slowly, but the unemployment rate remains at a high level (approx. 13%). The 1997 unemployment decrease was mostly due to institutional statistical interventions (older unemployed persons were not included anymore in the statistics and very long-term unemployed persons were also suspended) (Vranken, Geldof, & Van Menxel, 1997). The unemployment figures have constantly decreased up to now (cf. Table B-1), which is no longer due to institutional interventions but to a real improvement of the economic situation and an increase of employment (temporary and part-time jobs). Despite the recent decline of unemployment rates, the gap between better and lesser qualified persons remained and even became wider. Finally, the general unemployment decrease was not accompanied by an equal decrease of youth unemployment figures (Stuurgroep, 1999).