Changes in speciated PM2.5 concentrations in Fresno, California, due to NOx reductions and variations in diurnal emission profiles by day of week

The San Joaquin Valley in California suffers from poor air quality due to a combination of local emissions and weak ventilation. Over the course of decades, there has been a concerted effort to control emissions from vehicles as well as from residential wood burning. A multiple linear regression model was used to evaluate the trends in air pollution over multiple time scales: by year, by season, by day of the week and by time of day. The model was applied to 18 years of measurements in Fresno including hourly concentrations of NOx and PM2.5; and daily measurements of speciated components of PM2.5. The analysis shows that there have been reductions in NOx, elemental carbon and ammonium nitrate of 4 to 6%/year. On weekends, NOx concentrations are reduced by 15 to 30% due to fewer vehicle miles traveled and a smaller fraction of diesel traffic. These weekend reductions in NOx have not been accompanied by weekend reductions in PM2.5 however. In particular, elemental and organic carbon concentrations are higher on winter weekends. Analysis of diurnal profiles suggests that this is because of increased PM2.5 on Saturday and holiday evenings which are likely due to residential wood combustion. Furthermore, while organic carbon concentrations have decreased in the winter months, they have been variable but without a net decline in the summer, most likely as a result of forest fires offsetting other improvements in air quality. Fog was found to greatly enhance ammonium nitrate formation and was therefore associated with higher PM2.5 in the winter months. Overall the analysis shows that air quality controls have been effective at reducing concentrations of NOx and PM2.5; that continued reductions in emissions will further reduce pollutant concentrations; but that winter residential wood combustion and summer forest fires could offset some of the gains obtained.