Planning for success: Leveraging two ecosystem models to support development of an Antarctic marine protected area

Abstract Efforts are underway to forward a marine protected area (MPA) in the Western Antarctic Peninsula, guided by an internationally agreed framework of protected area objectives. Preliminary MPA boundaries were evaluated against some of these objectives using a static, map-based process, yet further assessment and additional objectives could be addressed with dynamic approaches. Here, the MPA's evaluation was expanded using the joint application of two published dynamic ecosystem models to further appraise the MPA. These models also considered potential impacts of climate change in the region, and greater insight can be gained from using them together rather than independently. Both models projected the proposed MPA could increase ecosystem viability in the region by reducing potential population declines, especially of penguins. These benefits manifested even when the impacts of climate change occurred over the long term, and likely accrued due to protection of areas important for krill aggregation and predator foraging. Model outcomes also suggested possible improvements to the preliminary MPA boundaries to reinforce these benefits. Using the two structurally distinct models together increased confidence in results and the potential for an MPA to meet multiple policy objectives in the region, and the paper further details the process of translating outcomes into timely decision support for stakeholders. Modelling results were regularly communicated using established formal and informal channels, ensuring model-derived advice directly supported policy needs. Collectively, the work demonstrates the process and value of leveraging existing ecosystem models, quickly adapting models to policy needs, and developing actionable advice for policy makers.