From new space to big space:How commercial space dream is becoming a reality…

Abstract New space is a misleading expression. Many new trends steer the evolution of space activities. Development of commercial space, with start-ups and space ventures, is one of the most visible trends in space. Stimulated by the first initiatives related to space tourism, access to space and the growing use of small satellites, space activities have attracted new entrepreneurs, both start-ups and big web actors with substantial investment capacity. This revolution started in the Silicon Valley and spread worldwide. Start-ups have attracted around $21.8 billion of investment from 2000 to 2018. It is far below the annual institutional budgets but the pace gained momentum since 2006 and specially 2012. Between teenage crisis and age of reason, New space is now old: the first start-ups shall confirm their promises, while new players pop up and try to find their way. It shakes the legacy players but they demonstrate resilience and adaptation capacity. It is now the right time to take stock of the first lessons learnt. Start-ups disrupt the established industry? Instead of a simplistic shortcut, this paper reports an “organisational ecology” study. With a deliberate industrial viewpoint, its ambition is to help understanding complex evolutions in the space ecosystem. The first part of the paper introduces the current ecosystem, its actors, the key trends and the main types of activities. Through facts and figures on technology, investments and markets, the second part reviews how “new space” trends is preparing the advent of big space. The third part summarises lessons from other industries and typical disruption scenarios that could affect space activities. The drivers of New space are discussed in section four. The last part is a foresight exercise, discussing possible evolutions and impacts, threats and opportunities. The decisive role of institutional actors and the « new New space » with more and more space-faring nations is also highlighted. Something big is happening in space. While it is too early to depict the new landscape, this study shows that the future picture will not be black and white but more colourful. The size and the age of the company are less important than agility, mindset, ability to manage risks and to cooperate. A big vision for the future, from entrepreneurs or from nations, is also needed.