Public Preferences for Exit Strategies From COVID-19 Lockdown in Germany—A Discrete Choice Experiment

Objectives: To decrease the rapid growth of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany, a stepped lockdown was conducted. Acceptance and compliance regarding entering and exiting lockdown measures are key for their success. The aim of the present study was to analyse the population's preferences for exiting lockdown measures. Methods: To evaluate population’s preferences and identify trade-offs between different exit strategies, a discrete choice experiment was conducted on 28-29 April (n=1020). Overall, six attributes and 16 choice sets (fractional-factorial design) without an opt-out were chosen. Conditional logit and latent class models were conducted. Results: Most attributes proved to be significant. Two attributes dominated all others: Avoiding a mandatory tracing app, and providing sufficient intensive care capacities. Preventing a high long-term unemployment rate and avoiding the isolation of persons aged 70+, were relevant, though utilities were comparatively lower. We identified subgroups (elderly persons and persons with school children) with different utilities, which indicates specific attributes affecting them dissimilarly. Conclusions: The population prefers cautious re-opening strategies and is at least sceptical about the adoption of severe protection measures. Government should balance interests between subgroups.