Estimation of the Mining Damage Risk in the Hypothetical Impact Area of the Concurrent Processes of Rock Mass Disorders

The aim of this work is the estimation of the risk of mining damage occurrence, based on uncertain information regarding the impact of the concurrent processes of deformation and vibration. This problem concerns the experimental and theoretical description of the so-called critical phenomena occurring during the reaction mining area ↔ building object. Post-mining deformations of the rock mass medium and paraseismic vibrations can appear at a considerable distance from the sub-area of the mining operation – hence, the determination of the measures of their impacts is usually somewhat subjective, while the estimation of the mining damage based on deterministic methods is often insufficient. It is difficult to show the correlation between the local maximum of the impact of the velocity vector amplitude and the damage to the building – especially if the measures of interaction are not additive. The parameters of these impacts, as registered by measurements, form finite sets with a highly random character. Formally, it is adequate to the mapping from the probability space to the power set. For the purposes of the present study, the Dempster – Shafer model was used, where space is characterised by subadditive and superadditive measures. Regarding the application layer, the conclusions from the expert evaluations are assumed to be the values of random variables. The model was defined, and the risk of damage occurrence was estimated.