Оценка эпидемиологической ситуации по геморрагической лихорадке с почечным синдромом в мире и России, прогноз на 2020 г.

Objective of the review is to characterize the nature of epidemiological situation on HFRS around the world and to conduct a comparative analysis of intensity and dynamics of the epidemiological process in the Russian Federation by Federal Districts, as well as make forecast for 2020. The analysis of the epidemiological situation is based on the materials of the official websites of healthcare organizations in the USA and Europe, WHO, the data from operational monitoring carried out by the reference center for HFRS monitoring “Kazan Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology”, materials provided by the Rospotrebnadzor Institutions in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The analysis included all administrative territories of the Russian Federation. Statistical processing was carried out by standard methods of variation statistics applying Excel software. The epidemiological situation on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome around the world and in Russia remains tense. In the Russian Federation, epidemically active foci are located in the European part of the country, in Western Siberia and in the Far East. Infections over the period of 2010–2019 were registered in 8 federal districts of the Russian Federation, in 58 constituent entities. However, the incidence distribution across the territory of the country was differential. In 97 % of the cases, the incidence was recorded in the European part of Russia. In the Volga Federal District, HFRS incidence amounted to 82.16 % of the total incidence recorded on the whole in Russia. High incidence rates are also recorded in the Central Federal District (CFD). Over the past 10 years (2010–2019), there has been an increase in the incidence of HFRS in the Central and North-West Federal Districts, and a decrease in the incidence in the Ural and Far Eastern Federal Districts. Varying degree of anthropogenic impact on the natural HFRS foci and climate change manifested in increased ambient air temperatures are of great importance for the spread of HFRS over the past decade. At the end of the review the forecast of the development of the epidemiological situation on HFRS in the Russian Federation for 2020 is presented.