Singida Regional and District Projections

This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for Singida Region and its districts. The projections were made using a Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility and migration were projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components were then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, and shows Singida’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. The results show that population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows a decrease in growth rates. The projections show that population growth rate will decrease from 2.4 percent in 2003 (with a population of 1,118,874) to 1.5 percent in 2025 (with a population of 1,897,726). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to increase from 95 males per 100 females in 2003 to 100 males per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 84 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 135 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 62 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. The mortality projected estimates further show that the life expectancy at birth for females is higher compared to that of males as expected. Life expectancy at birth for Singida will increase from 55 years in 2003 to 63 years in 2025 for both sexes. For male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 56 years in year 2003 to 63 years in 2025, while for female population, the life expectancy at birth will increase from 54 years in 2003 to 63 years in 2025. On fertility, TFR will decline from 6.0 children per woman in 2003 to 3.0 children per woman in 2025.